How will the US Presidential Elections shape North America’s future? With 530 million residents, including 60 million immigrants, in North America today, the US presidential elections will have sweeping effects on immigration policies across the continent—regardless of its outcome.
In June 2024, Arundati Dandapani, Founder and CEO of Generation1.ca, addressed an audience of industry leaders in Chicago, presenting insights from her book and paper with public opinion research and data analytics insights around immigration trends and the new global immigrant realities. Her insights, stories and research approaches highlighted how immigration remains a top bipartisan concern in the United States, and, in Canada, public sentiment increasingly favoured lower immigration quotas with recent debates focusing on the strain of shared economic and social resources including jobs, housing, inflation, standard of living, etc.
The upcoming US presidential election, featuring Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, has the potential to redefine North American immigration, affecting both the US and Canada in ways that stretch beyond politics. The Pew Research Center reports that while the economy remains the top issue for voters overall, immigration ranks as the sixth most important. Notably, 39% of Harris supporters consider immigration a key factor in their vote, compared to 82% of Trump supporters who view it as very important.
A Gallup International survey across 43 countries shows that most respondents (54%) favor Kamala Harris over Donald Trump (26%) in a hypothetical global vote, though the expected US election outcome is closer. Harris’s presidency is seen as more likely to improve America’s global standing and stability (38% and 32%, respectively), while nearly half (48%) feel Trump’s reelection could worsen perceptions. Regional variations include stronger support for Harris in Western Europe and Latin America, and for Trump in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. The survey had 41,000 participants and a ±3-5% margin of error. The expected result of the upcoming US Presidential election is a lot closer, with 47% believing Harris will win, 34% feeling Donald Trump will win and crucially, 19% unsure.
With North America’s shared cultural and economic ties, shifts in US immigration policies will influence Canadian policies, attitudes, and potentially, the flow of skilled immigrants. This pivotal election could either open doors for new opportunities or lead to restrictive measures impacting the entire continent. As North America stands at this crossroads, Generation1.ca is ready to lead the charge with continuing to empower immigrants and forge pathways to their professional advancement and success as a social enterprise grassroots initiative.
At the Insights Association’s AI Ignite Conference in October 2024, Generation1.ca Founder and CEO Arundati Dandapani addressed the critical guardrails, limitations, and caveats of AI in research, playing devil’s advocate as the opposition leader in the Great Synthetic Data Debate. However, AI advancements are truly reshaping public opinion research by enabling the blending of vast quantitative datasets with richer qualitative insights. As exemplified by recent work and the presentation from polls by The New York Times and Siena College Research Institute, and CloudResearch’s Engage platform, AI-powered interviewers are helping to uncover what drives opinion shifts among “persuadable” voters, revealing nuances in how voters define traits like “strength” and “intelligence” in US Presidential candidates. These examples demonstrate how data leaders can harness AI-driven insights to broaden their analytical toolkit and elevate research design for a new era of public opinion polling.
Implications for US Immigration Policy
Kamala Harris Presidency
A Kamala Harris win would likely bring a more balanced approach to immigration. While committed to enforcement, Harris proposes a framework that could address both security concerns and expand legal pathways. Her bipartisan border bill promises to tighten asylum rules without dismantling the safety net for those in need, while also:
- Allowing partial border shutdowns during high surges for controlled immigration flow
- Enhancing funding for immigration review processes and anti-trafficking initiatives
She further proposes creating 250,000 green card-eligible spots over the next five years, with increases in family and employment-based visas, marking a 13% rise in employment-based visas and a 7% boost in family-based visas by 2030. For Generation1.ca, a Harris administration would signify a step toward a more inclusive and supportive immigration framework. This aligns with our mission to bridge opportunities for skilled immigrants across North America, helping them thrive in welcoming environments.
Donald Trump Presidency
If re-elected, Donald Trump would likely pursue a more restrictive stance on immigration, with proposals that include:
- Mass deportations potentially affecting up to 11 million undocumented immigrants
- Completing the US-Mexico border wall and challenging birthright citizenship
- Reducing pathways for legal immigration, limiting opportunities for family and employment-based visas
Under Trump’s policies, skilled workers, students, and entrepreneurs may find their prospects in the US dwindling, prompting many to consider Canada as a viable alternative. In response, Generation1.ca could witness a renewed wave of skilled individuals from the US seeking Canada as an alternative home to continue their lives. While geographic proximity offers convenience, it does not guarantee a desired quality of life, particularly in times of economic uncertainty, without the future-ready skills, competencies, and connections essential for success. This is where Generation1.ca shines: our proven track record in equipping a diverse membership with vital resources and opening new pathways to opportunity, uniquely positions us to meet this demand.
Global Ripples and Local Realities
The global view on each candidate would also shape migration policy. A Harris presidency is viewed more favourably worldwide, potentially influencing international migration patterns. At the same time, legal hurdles and congressional opposition could limit both candidates’ agendas, making it challenging to predict the full scope of their impact.
The ripple effects of the US election on Canada are significant. Should Trump’s more restrictive measures prevail, Canada may become the more favourable destination for immigrants and some disillusioned US residents alike, along with the following:
- Increased Skilled Worker Flow: With skilled workers including H1B visa holders unable to secure a future in the US, Canada could see an influx of workers in areas like tech, engineering, and healthcare, potentially easing Canada’s labour market demands. Generation1.ca stands ready to connect these individuals to the resources and job opportunities needed for successful integration.
- Asylum Seekers: If the US tightens its asylum policies, Canada may see an increase in refugees crossing the border in search of stability. Generation1.ca’s support will be crucial for these newcomers, ensuring they receive the resources and support they need during their transition.
Immigration policies, particularly those affecting labour markets, could shift corporate Equity, Diversity, Inclusion and Reconciliation / Belonging (EDIR/B) initiatives across North America. For Generation1.ca, these changes underscore our essential role in fostering opportunities, connecting immigrants with job markets, and promoting an upskilled and future-ready workforce, embodying responsible AI, technical and scalable data skills across critical labour market skills shortages across STEM, Healthcare, Transport, Skilled Trades, Agriculture and Agrifoods industries, for example.
Generation1.ca in an Evolving Landscape
Whatever the outcome of the election, Generation1.ca remains steadfast in its mission: to empower immigrants and help them contribute fully to North American society. Whether supporting those affected by restrictive policies or helping skilled workers transition into Canada and North America’s labour markets, Generation1.ca serves as a trusted bridge between immigrant communities and meaningful opportunities. Amidst uncertainties, Generation1.ca stands as a beacon for professional integration and inclusion providing newcomers with the resources they need to thrive.
The 2024 US presidential election will undeniably impact immigration across North America, with far-reaching effects on policy, different labour markets, and global migration trends. As we navigate these changes, Generation1.ca is committed to ensuring that every newcomer has a pathway to career advancement, professional integration, and success within shifting political, business and technological landscapes, economic anxieties, public opinion and geopolitics.
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