Samir Abu Rumman’s pre-US Election article describes the historical accuracy of US public opinion polls in predicting presidential elections, acknowledging notable failures like in 1948 and 2016. It highlights that despite significant advancements in polling techniques, the 2024 election remained too close to call, with candidates polling between 48% and 52%. The piece emphasizes the inherent uncertainties in polling due to sampling errors and shifts in voter sentiment, suggesting a critical need for humility in interpreting predictions during highly competitive elections.
Tag: Polls
Trust is more important than just conducting elections in Kuwait.
Heading into the June 6th national elections, what do Kuwaiti citizens feel about their elections? What can the Arab Barometer tell us about citizen trust in their national electoral process? Samir Abu Rumman of Princeton University offers a peek.
Are Polls Obsolete? Boosting Trust, Accuracy and Data Quality in Survey Research
What are the current issues facing the polling and marketing research industry? Tune into the discussions with our founder.
